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Q4 Capital Markets Update

Deal Volume Accelerates

Low rates and excess lender liquidity has helped fuel the highest pace in commercial real estate volume in 16 years.  Multifamily has captured 35% of the volume this last month with valuations up over 10% since last year.  Strong lender appetite with aggressive rates have fueled this surge in valuations, particularly in growth markets like Dallas, Austin, Atlanta, and Nashville.  The central business district office index is down 4.5% last quarter from a year ago.  The suburban office price index jumped over 10%, showing expectations of employer movement away from city centers.  CMBS delinquencies are down to 2.50%, with retail having the highest (4.07%) and lodging the lowest (1.54%).  Lenders remain focused on tenant credit and collections history.  

Rate and Economic Indicators

  • 10 Year Treasury up to 1.57% from 1.19% at the start of August:  Bloomberg rates team forecasts 1.58% by end of 2021 and 1.95% by the end of 2022. 

  • LIBOR and SOFR flat at 0.08% & 0.05%:  1 & 2-Year LIBOR Forwards at 0.25% and 0.70%, down from last quarter expectations

  • Core PCE (the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) came in at 3.6%:  Oil Prices at 7-Year high at $80/barrel

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Recent Financings

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Industrial Business Park
Nevada City, CA

$4 Million Bridge Financing

Private Investment Fund

2 Year Term, 6-Month Min Interest

Full-Term Interest-Only

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Webster University Columbia, SC

70% LTV Acquisition Financing

Credit Union execution

7-Year Fixed Rate 

5-Year remaining lease term

Rates

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac continue to reward affordable deals with 10-40 basis point discounts in rates.  

Life Companies are filling up for the year, but continue to price aggressively for well-located, newer product.  

Banks and Credit Unions remain competitive for smaller balance, shorter 3 - 7 year terms, with some new full-term interest-only programs for select multifamily.  

Construction Lenders are adding extra construction budget contingencies with the recent volatility in materials and labor costs.  A strong Sponsorship and GC track-record is critical to securing competitive financing terms.  

Lender

Max LTV

Rates

Closing

Notes

Fannie/Freddie

10-Year Fixed

80%

2.60% - 3.05%
 

45-60 days
 

LTV & DSCR dependent

Fannie/Freddie

10-Year Floating

75%

2.25% - 2.50%
 

45-60 days
 

LTV & DSCR dependent

FHA Refinance

35-Year Fixed

85%

2.75% - 3.20%
 

120-150 days

includes MIP

Life Insurance

Companies

75%

2.50% - 3.25%
 

40-50 days

DY dependent
 

CMBS, Bank, &
Credit Union

75%
 

2.95% - 3.65%
 

45-70 days

DY & term
dependent

Bridge
Debt Funds 

80%
 

3.0% - 5.25% +
 

14-45 days
 

LTC & stabilized DY dependent

Construction
Lenders

80%
 

3.25% - 4.75%
 

45-60 days
 

LTC & size
dependent

Multifamily Loans In-Progress

Lender: Debt Fund
393 Units in Texas

  • $26 Million Bridge Loan

  • $1.8 Million CAPEX funding

  • 78% LTC, non-recourse

  • 3.35% rate - 0.25% Libor Floor

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Lender: Regional Bank
33 Units in Oregon

  • $3.51 Million Cash-Out Refinance

  • 3.25% fixed rate

  • 65% LTV, non-recourse

  • 3-Years Interest-Only, 7-Year Fixed Term

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Lender: Local Credit Union
30 Units in Oregon 

  • $1.85 Million Cash-Out Refinance

  • 2.89% fixed rate

  • 65% LTV, recourse

  • 10-Year Fixed Term with 5-Year re-set

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Tim Gerlach, CPA  |  Principal

CPA Lic. 130463  |  Broker Lic. 02038912

Need a loan quote, prepay breakeven, or refinance analysis? 

Email me at Tim.Gerlach@StoneHarborCapital.com

Or call me at 323-505-9222